| That's
right, y'all, it's Oscar time. And as your humble, civic servant,
forever standing vanguard against cultural pollutants and
wastes of your time, THE REEL DEAL predicts the Oscars. Trust
me on these, folks – and win your office pool.
BEST ACTOR
Nominated: Johnny Depp, Ben Kingsley, Jude Law, Bill Murray,
Sean Penn
Should Win: Bill Murray. Although Johnny Depp totally made
what could have been a pointless, boring popcorn flick into
a pointless, ENTERTAINING popcorn flick, Bill's got more range
and fat to chew on in "Lost in Translation." Plus,
I hated Kingsley's "House of Sand and Fog" and "Mystic
River" is vastly overrated.
Will Win: Sean Penn. Although a close race with Murray, Penn
has, amazingly never won an Oscar. Academy voters, like bad
NBA referees, have an annoying tendency of doing "make
up calls" on previous oversights (Whoopi Goldberg's Oscar
for "Ghost" instead of "The Color Purple,"
anyone?).
BEST ACTRESS
Nominated: Keisha Castle-Hughes, Diane Keaton, Samantha Morton,
Charlize Theron, Naomi Watts
Should Win: Charlize Theron. In the closest of all races for
THE REEL DEAL, she makes a complete physical and career transformation.
I loved Diane Keaton in "Something's Gotta Give,"
was blown away by Watts in "21 Grams," and respect
the job Morton did in "In America," but I didn't
see "Whale Rider." Never saw Charlize coming.
Will Win: Theron. Despite the age-skewing demographics of
the Academy, who has been rallying a bit around Keaton, Theron's
performance has been more talked about. Castle-Hughes is too
young and has plenty of opportunities in the future.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominated: Alec Baldwin, Benicio del Toro, Djimon Hounsou,
Tim Robbins, Ken Watanabe
Should Win: This is close for me, but I give the slight edge
to Baldwin. Both fierce and sad with killer lines, Baldwin's
foul-mouthed casino security dinosaur is amazing to watch.
If it weren't for him, I'd give it to Ken Watanabe in a heartbeat,
stealing the movie from under Tom Cruise with a stately, distinguished
performance.
Will Win: Tim Robbins. "Mystic River" fever continues.
And I still don't know why.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominated: Shohreh Aghdashloo, Patricia Clarkson, Marcia Gay
Harden, Holly Hunter, Renee Zellweger
Should Win: Shohreh Aghdashloo. Although I hated "House
of Sand and Fog," her performance does stand out because
of how much humanity she imbued a role which basically has
nothing to do.
Will Win: Renee Zellweger. Her role is pure Oscar bait candy,
a hurricane of fresh air in her movie right when it needed
it. Although not Aghdashloo's fault, a smear campaign against
Zellweger in the Industry's trades won't help her cause.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominated: The Barbarian Invasions, Dirty Pretty Things, Finding
Nemo, In America, Lost in Translation
Should Win: Wow. That's a tough one. As witty and inclusive
as "Finding Nemo" is, I gotta give some love to
another wholly underappreciated movie this year, the wildly
complex, dynamic, and effective "Dirty Pretty Things."
Although great dialogue, "Lost in Translation" isn't
nearly as complicated or urgent as "Things."
Will Win: "Lost in Translation." Consider it Coppola's
consolation prize when she doesn't win another award the rest
of the night.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominated: American Splendor, City of God, Mystic River, The
Return of the King, Seabiscuit
Should Win: "City of God." "City of God, City
of God, City of God." If we all repeat it enough, the
universe might make it true…
Will Win: "Mystic River." This will be River's consolation
prize as a production when it probably loses out on every
other major award to Hobbitville. Don't sleep on Seabiscuit,
though, as a high profile adaptation of a runaway bestseller
- no easy feat with such an amalgamation of expectations and
egos.
BEST PICTURE
Nominated: Lost in Translation, Master and Commander, Mystic
River, The Return of the King, Seabiscuit
Should Win: My favorite movies "City of God," "Finding
Nemo," and "21 Grams" aren't nominated. So
I guess I'll go with "Lost in Translation," a movie
I enjoyed but am a little astonished at all the critical foaming
at the mouth.
Will Win: "The Return of the King." Of course. The
Academy's rewarding Jackson for his three films instead of
for just this one; never mind that it's a half hour too long.
"Master and Commander" is solid but curiously overhyped
this awards season. "Seabiscuit" came out too long
ago and is a little too slight to win. "Mystic River"
mania may come within a hair of winning, but those not voting
for the hobbits may also put their votes into audience and
critical darling "Lost in Translation."
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominated: Sofia Coppola, Clint Eastwood, Peter Jackson, Fernando
Meirelles, Peter Weir.
Should Win: Fernando Meirelles. I am so sorry I slept on you
this long! Easily the most innovative directing and editing
showcase of the year.
Will Win: All together now: "Peter Jackson." Or,
renamed for this year only, the Hobbit Lifetime Achievement
Award.
Like what you read? Agree/disagree with The Reel Deal? Think
he's talkin' out his...HUSH YO' MOUF! (I'm only talkin' about
The Reel Deal!) Email him at ReelReviewz@aol.com!
Edwardo Jackson is the author of the novels EVER AFTER and
NEVA HAFTA, (Villard/Random House), a writer for UrbanFilmPremiere.com,
and an LA-based screenwriter. Visit his website at www.edwardojackson.com
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